Abstract

A survey of returning and non-returning students at Scarborough College was undertaken to investigate the problem of declining retention rates at Ontario Universities. This study describes the opportunities available to and chosen by non-returning students, and then seeks to evaluate various hypotheses that have been proposed to account for enrolment attrition. Consistent with prior research, there was no evidence found to support the claim that students are being forced out of university by an inability to afford the costs of their education. Instead, the results suggested that enrolment attrition is produced by a combination of an attenuation of the student's commitment to obtain the degree and the student's awareness of and access to viable alternatives. As a result of a pervasive sense of uncertainty about the market value of a university degree, many students are willing to assay other opportunities. Specifically, those students who went to work appear to have been "pulled out" of university by the availability of a credible job. In addition, the contingencies affecting the commitment of the returning students and the students who transfer to other educational institutions are discussed. The conclusion addresses the relationship between financial circumstances and access to university, and raises questions about future enrolment patterns.