A Comparison of High School Graduation Predictors Between Two Ontario Student Cohorts
DOI :
https://doi.org/10.53967/cje-rce.5181Mots-clés :
diplôme d’études secondaires, réussite scolaire, longitudinaleRésumé
Bien qu’il ait déjà été démontré qu’un certain nombre de facteurs influencent les variations des taux d’obtention de diplôme chez les élèves au Canada, peu de recherches se sont penchées sur les conséquences de ces facteurs sur l’achèvement des études secondaires des élèves ontariens au fil du temps. La présente recherche repose sur des données recueillies auprès de la Commission scolaire du district de Toronto concernant deux promotions de 9e année (2006 et 2011) et vise à déterminer comment les indicateurs relatifs à l’obtention des diplômes d’études secondaires évoluent au fil du temps. Plus particulièrement, nous recourons à une analyse multivariée pour déterminer si les indicateurs (notamment le sexe, la race, le niveau d’éducation des parents, le revenu du ménage, la suspension, le rendement scolaire, les besoins en matière d’éducation spécialisée et l’absentéisme en 9e année) sont significatifs par groupe d’élèves et s’il y a des écarts en matière de réussite au secondaire entre les sous-groupes. Les résultats obtenus prouvent que le taux d’achèvement des études secondaires augmente au fil du temps et que l’importance de l’éducation des parents et du revenu moyen des ménages du quartier en tant que facteurs prédictifs de l’obtention du diplôme d’études secondaires diminue. Cependant, nous observons la persistance de mauvais résultats chez les élèves de certaines minorités raciales, dans les classes inférieures et chez ceux qui ont un taux d’absentéisme élevé. Nous estimons que des infrastructures de données supplémentaires sont nécessaires en Ontario et ailleurs pour savoir si les résultats que nous avons obtenus s’appliquent à l’ensemble de la province.
Statistiques
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