Making Thermal Activity Forecast at the Hungarian Meteorological Service

Abstract

At the Division for Aviation and Severe Weather Forecasting of the Hungarian Meteorological Service, thermal activity forecasts are made for soaring flight.  In the last 20-25 years, the numerical weather prediction models have developed so quickly that our old statistical method could have been replaced with an automatic forecast. However, the method for the calculation is the same.  Our thermal activity forecasting method is based on a statistical method, which was developed in the 80’s by János Szalma, András Kerekes, Bertalan Katkó and Valéria Sándor.  We automated their old method in the last ten-fifteen years.  Most input data come from the ALADIN.HU numerical weather prediction model, but some predictors still are determined by the synoptic meteorologist.  Using the input data, the program makes automatic forecasts for wind, maximum temperature, visibility range, starting time of thermals, end of thermal activity, lifting in thermals and height of 0 degree centigrade.  Of course, the weather forecaster can modify these automatic thermal activity forecasts, and he/she may compliment them with warnings or different comments.  Furthermore, our thermal activity forecasts have been verified since 1995.