TREE METHODS FOR RISK EVALUATION OF THE GLIDER FLIGHT

Abstract

The conception, procedure and the algorithm of quantitative risk investigation in the system Man-Glider-Environment is presented in the paper. Basic stages of probability safety assessment i.e. modeling of hazard and modeling of reliability are discussed. Special attention is paid to human factor and the dependence of the glider height on the level of hazard, which are characteristic features of the system. Human factor was analyzed as a cause of human errors and also as the dominant element of the system counteracting hazard after occurrence of an undesirable event. Basic relations for quantitative risk assessment are presented. Probability of casualties during one year of exploitation of a glider is defined as a measure of risk. The analysis consists mainly the estimation of sensitivity of the measure of risk on modifications of various factors characteristic for the system.