Validating mountain-wave predictions from the United States High-Resolution, Rapid-Refresh (HRRR) numerical weather prediction (NWP) model

Abstract

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has developed the HRRR NWP model and made the predictions available, free-of-charge, at rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrr/. The model is sufficiently high-resolution to predict mountain waves. The waves appear in the ‘max updraft’ maps as linear and quasi-linear regions. In this study, glider flight recorder data from eastern US wave flights are compared with these regions. It is shown the regions, indeed, contained mountain waves. A number of the flights achieved the 5-km altitude-gain for the F´ed´eration A´eronautique Internationale (FAI) Diamond Badge. The predicted updraft speeds, on average, were consistent with the updraft speeds calculated from the flight recorder data.