Predicting Research Productivity in International Evaluation Journals across Countries

Main Article Content

Christoph E. Mueller
Hansjoerg Gaus
Ingo Konradt

Abstract

Background: Progress in evaluation research depends on the continuous generation of scholarly knowledge and its dissemination in the community. One way of disseminating findings is to publish in scientific journals and researchers, institutions, and even whole countries are assessed by their output in these journals. Particularly with regard to countries, there is an uneven distribution of research productivity in evaluation journals. A viable model for predicting countries’ research output in international evaluation journals, however, has not yet been developed.

 

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to develop and test a model for the prediction of countries’ research output in international evaluation journals by predictors from the research, economic, and social/political system.

 

Setting: NA

 

Intervention: NA

 

Research Design: A cross-sectional design was used for predicting research output in evaluation journals across countries.

 

Data Collection and Analysis: Our sample consists of 65 countries that made contributions to ten international peer-reviewed evaluation journals. We collected data for the period from 2009 to 2013 and predicted the number of authorships across countries by using boosted regression trees, a machine learning procedure.

 

Findings: Our model provided accurate predictions of countries’ research output. Research productivity in the social sciences had the strongest effect, followed by economic prosperity, control of corruption, and age of evaluation society. The model was generalizable to another period of time with only marginal loss in predictive accuracy.

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How to Cite
Mueller, C. E., Gaus, H., & Konradt, I. (2016). Predicting Research Productivity in International Evaluation Journals across Countries. Journal of MultiDisciplinary Evaluation, 12(27), 79–92. Retrieved from https://journals.sfu.ca/jmde/index.php/jmde_1/article/view/459
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Articles
Author Biographies

Christoph E. Mueller, Saarland University, Center for Evaluation (CEval)

Christoph Emanuel Mueller, B.A. in political and administrative science (University of Constance, Germany), Master of Evaluation (Saarland University, Germany), PhD in Sociology (Saarland University), is a senior researcher at the Center for Evaluation, Department of Sociology, Saarland University, and a lecturer in quantitative research methods at Saarland University.

Hansjoerg Gaus, Saarland University, Center for Evaluation (CEval)

Hansjoerg Gaus, Diplom-Kaufmann (University of Mannheim, Germany), PhD in business administration (Chemnitz University of Technology, Germany), is a senior scientist at the Center for Evaluation, Department of Sociology, Saarland University, and a visiting lecturer in consumer behavior at Chemnitz University of Technology.

Ingo Konradt, Institute for Employment Research Rhineland-Palatinate-Saarland

Ingo Konradt, B.A. in political and administrative science (University of Constance, Germany), is a researcher at the Institute for Employment Research Rhineland-Palatinate-Saarland, Germany, and a student of the Master of Evaluation (Saarland University, Germany).