Working Paper: Designing Narrative-Based CVE Products With A Structured Professional Judgment Approach

Jörg Peschak


Inspired by methods used in risk assessment, this paper suggests a structured professional judgment approach (SPJ) to facilitate the decision-making process in expert group settings tasked with the development of narrative-based countering violent extremism (CVE) products. The added value of this concept is to systematically apply the relevant knowledge distributed among the literature and identify the strengths and weaknesses of the narrative-based CVE product in early stages like the baseline assessment. This may enable campaigners to avoid expensive mistakes and accelerate the development of products. A tentative checklist is provided. Furthermore, indicators for monitoring and evaluation are suggested.


Counternarratives; Countering Violent Extremism (CVE); Alternative Narratives; Structured Professional Judgment Approach (SPJ)

Full Text:



Beerli, A., & Santana, J. D. M. (1999). Design and validation of an instrument for measuring advertising effectiveness in the printed media. Journal of Current Issues & Research in Advertising, 21(2), 11-30.

Beutel, A., Weine, S., Saeed, A., Mihajlovic, A., Stone, A., Beahrs, J., & Shanfield, S. (2016). Guiding principles for countering and displacing extremist narratives. Contemporary Voices: St Andrews Journal of International Relations, 7(3).

Bjørgo, T. (2011). Dreams and disillusionment: Engagement in and disengagement from militant extremist groups. Crime, law and social change, 55(4), 277-285.

Braddock, K., & Horgan, J. (2016). Towards a guide for constructing and disseminating counternarratives to reduce support for terrorism. Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, 39(5), 381-404.

Briggs, R., & Feve, S. (2013). Review of programs to counter narratives of violent extremism. Retrieved June 2nd, 2020 from

Casebeer, W. D., & Russell, J. A. (2005). Storytelling and terrorism: Towards a comprehensive counter-narrative strategy. NAVAL Postgraduate School Monterey CA Center for Contemporary Conflict; Strategic Insights, v. 4, issue 3. Retrieved May 31st, 2020 from

Cereal Entrepreneur - Jordan Steen (April 30th, 2018). Facebook Analytics Tutorial 2018. Retrieved November 4th, 2019 from

Chermack, T. J., & Lynham, S. A. (2002). Definitions and outcome variables of scenario planning. Human Resource Development Review, 1(3), 366-383.

Cook, J., & Lewandowsky, S. (2011). The debunking handbook. Sevloid Art.

CSEP (2019). The nine essentials to consider while engaging in online P/CVE campaigning. Retrieved May 5th, 2020 from

Douglas, K. S., Hart, S. D., Webster, C. D., Belfrage, H., Guy, L. S., & Wilson, C. M. (2014). Historical-clinical-risk management-20, version 3 (HCR-20V3): development and overview. International Journal of Forensic Mental Health, 13(2), 93-108.

European Commission (2016). Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the Council, the European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions: Supporting the prevention of radicalisation leading to violent extremism: COM/2016/0379 final. Retrieved May 5th, 2020 from

Feinberg, M., & Willer, R. (2015). From gulf to bridge: when do moral arguments facilitate political influence?. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 41(12), 1665-1681.

Funnell, S. C., & Rogers, P. J. (2011). Purposeful program theory: Effective use of theories of change and logic models. John Wiley & Sons.

Godet, M., & Roubelat, F. (1996). Creating the future: the use and misuse of scenarios. Long range planning, 29(2), 164-171.

Gómez, Á., López-Rodríguez, L., Sheikh, H., Ginges, J., Wilson, L., Waziri, H., Vázquez, A., Davis, R. & Atran, S. (2017). The devoted actor’s will to fight and the spiritual dimension of human conflict. Nature Human Behaviour,1(9), 673-679.

Hall, J. (December 27th, 2017). Google Analytics Beginners Tutorial. Retrieved November 4th, 2019 from

Hart, S. D., Cook, A. N., Pressman, D. E., Strang, S., & Lim, Y. L. (2017). A concurrent evaluation of threat assessment tools for the individual assessment of terrorism. Waterloo, Ontario: Canadian Network for Research on Terrorism, Security, and Society.

Hart, S. D., & Logan, C. (2011). Formulation of violence risk using evidence-based assessments: The structured professional judgment approach. In P. Sturmey & M. McMurran (Eds.) Forensic case formulation, 83-106. Chichester, UK: Wiley-Blackwell.

Holmer, G. (2013). Countering violent extremism: A peacebuilding perspective. US Institute of Peace, Retrieved November 22nd, 2020 from

Kemmis, A. (2019). The Difference Between Direct and Organic Website Traffic Sources. Retrieved November 4th 2019 from

Lenos, S., Haanstra, W., Keltjens, M., & van de Donk, M. (2017). RAN Polarisation Management Manual. Retrieved November 24th, 2020 from

Lewandowsky, S., Ecker, U. K., Seifert, C. M., Schwarz, N., & Cook, J. (2012). Mis-information and its correction: Continued influence and successful debiasing. Psychological Science in the Public Interest, 13(3), 106-131. Retrieved November 21st, 2019 from

Kahneman, D. (2011). Thinking, fast and slow. Macmillan.

Koehler, D. (2017). Understanding deradicalization: Methods, tools and programs for countering violent extremism. Taylor & Francis.

Kumkale, G. T., & Albarracín, D. (2004). The Sleeper Effect in Persuasion: A Meta-Analytic Review. Psychological bulletin, 130(1), 143- 172.

Mattei, C. & Zeiger, S. (2018). Evaluate your CVE results: Projecting your impact. Hedayat. Retrieved November 21st, 2020 from

Meines, M. (2017). How to measure the impact of your online counter or alternative narrative campaign. Retrieved November 4th 2019 from

Meines, M. & Ritzmann A. (2018). Checklist of relevant mental biases and mechanisms for developing counter or alternative narratives. Retrieved November 4th 2019 from

Mohlenkamp, M., Wouterse, L., & Gielen, A., J. (2018). Guideline evaluation of PCVE programmes and interventions. Retrieved May 27th 2020 from

Monahan, J. (2012). The individual risk assessment of terrorism. Psychology, Public Policy, and Law, 18(2), 167-205.

Mooi, E., Sarstedt, M., & Mooi-Reci, I. (2018). Market research: The process, data, and methods using stata. Springer Nature Singapore.

Pressman, Duits, Rinne & Flockton (2018). Violent Extremism Risk Assessment Version 2 Revised. Utrecht: NIFP.

RAN, Brown, K., E., & Marway, H. (2019). Preventing Radicalization to Terrorism and Violent Extremism: Delivering counter- or alternative narratives. Retrieved May 31st, 2020 from

RAN, van de Donk, M., & Lenos, S. (2019). Preventing Radicalization to Terrorism and Violent Extremism: Approaches and Practices. Retrieved May 31st, 2020 from

Reed, A. G., Ingram, H. J., & Whittaker, J. (2017). Countering terrorist narratives. Retrieved May 31st, 2020 from

Reynolds, L., & Tuck, H. (2016). The Counter-Narrative Monitoring & Evaluation Handbook. Institute for Strategic Dialogue. Retrieved March 15 th, 2019 from

Ritzmann, A. (2017). RAN guidelines for effective alternative and counter-narrative campaigns (GAMMMA+). Retrieved November 4th, 2019 from

Ritzmann, A., Wouterse, L., & Verdegaal, M. (2019). Effective Narratives: Updating the GAMMMA+ model. Retrieved May 29th, 2020 from

Sadowski, F., Rossegger, A., Pressman, E., Rinne, T., Duits, N., & Endrass, J. (2017). Das Violent Extremism Risk Assessment Version 2 Revised (VERA-2R): eine Skala zur Beurteilung des Risikos extremistischer Gewalt; Deutsche Übersetzung. Kriminalistik, (5), 335-342.

Safe Space Group (2015). Open your Eyes. Retrieved February 17th, 2020 from

Tuck, H. (2017). Measuring the impact of your online counter or alternative narrative campaign message. Retrieved November 4th, 2019 from

Tuck, H., & Silverman, T. (2016). The Counter-Narrative Handbook. London: Institute for Strategic Dialogue. Retrieved March 1st , 2019 from

Turn (2016). Jamal Al-Khatib: Mein Weg. Retrieved February 17 th, 2020 from

UN WOMEN (2012). What is a baseline assessment?. Retrieved November 24th, 2020 from

Van der Heide, L., & Schuurman, B. (2018). Reintegrating terrorists in the Netherlands: Evaluating the Dutch approach. Journal for Deradicalization, (17), 196-239.

Van Notten, P. W., Rotmans, J., Van Asselt, M. B., & Rothman, D. S. (2003). An updated scenario typology. Futures, 35(5), 423-443.

Wouterse, L. & Verdegaal, M. (2019). Monitoring & Evaluating counter-and alternative narrative campaigns. Retrieved November 21st, 2019 from


  • There are currently no refbacks.

Copyright (c) 2020 Jörg Peschak

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

ISSN: 2363-9849 

Proud Member of the Directory of Open Access Journals (DOAJ)