Visceral Leishmaniasis (Kala-Azar) Risk Mapping using Geo-Spatial Tools: A Case Study in KaftaHumera District, North Western Ethiopia

Abstract

Visceral Leishmaniasis (VL) is a severe vector‐borne parasitic disease. In Ethiopia, the estimated incidence of VL ranges from 2,000 to 4,500 cases per year. Based on this, the main objective of this research was to develop an area risk map of VL and to estimate the total population at risk in KaftaHumera District, Northwestern Ethiopia. To achieve the stated objective, geospatial tools were used to extract and develop a risk cover map of VL using variables including rainfall, temperature, vegetation cover, soil type, altitude, slope and population data. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to assign the weight of influence for the variables in a spatially weighted overlay analysis model. The result revealed that temperature, elevation, soil, slope, rainfall and NDVI were the major predictors of VL presence with percentage influence of 29%, 22%, 15%, 13%, 12%, and 9%, respectively. From the produced risk map, 3453.69 km2, 2210.38 km2 and 269.59 km2 representing 58.21%, 37.25%, and 4.54%, of the total area of KaftaHumera District are at high, medium and low VL risk, respectively. In addition, the estimated population at high, medium and low risk levels are 92,831 (68.98%), 34,864 (25.91 %) and 6,874 (5.11%), respectively. Based on the output, villages such as Bereket, Rawoyan, Baeker, Adebay, May Kadra and Humera town were identified with high population at risk for VL. Identification of “priority Villages” requiring immediate attention from health agencies as well as the local community greatly reduces the cost, time and energy needed for designing effective VL control measures.