Assessing Water Resource Vulnerability to Climate Change in Al-karak, Jordan Based on GIS and Remote Sensing

Abstract

Climate change and population growth exacerbate water scarcity in Jordan, highlighting the imperative for vulnerability assessments; however, the absence of a comprehensive framework with sufficient indicators hinders effective evaluation of water resource vulnerability. This research aims to determine spatial factors that can contribute to the vulnerability of water resources in the study area. Using the IPCC methodology, vulnerability is divided into three distinct components: exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. The study period spans from 1987 to 2022 (35 years). By employing remote sensing (RS), GIS techniques, and the analytical hierarchy process (AHP), fourteen indications were chosen based on their proximity to the measured component. The indicators were then normalized to produce a consistent scale ranging from 0 to 1. The study employs a geometric aggregation methodology to evaluate water resource vulnerability by integrating various indicators. The composite indicator (CI) is calculated by geometrically aggregating the vulnerability index (VI) of three components. This approach captures complex relationships and synergies among indicators, providing a comprehensive assessment of water resource vulnerability. The vulnerability map produced from the study illustrated vulnerability distribution throughout the area, highlighting notable high-vulnerability zones such as the AlQatraneh District, as well as portions of the northern and southern regions, including the Alghour District, characterized by arid conditions. Vulnerability values ranged from 0.44 to 0.5, with a notable concentration around 0.4, indicating substantial vulnerability. The study found a significant vulnerability in areas with a consistent decline in annual rainfall of 1.3 mm / year and a rise in annual variability of 2-3%. High-vulnerability areas experienced a significant increase in rainfall variability and temperature by 0.03°C /year, indicating continuous climate change. Piezometric data validated the vulnerability index map, with a Kappa index of 0.6552, attributed to factors such as declining precipitation, rising temperatures, and increased water demand due to population growth.