Identifying Geographic Dengue Fever Distribution by Modeling Environmental Variables

Abstract

During 2012-2015, the municipality of Guarulhos, inserted in the São Paulo Metropolitan Region (the 4th largest metropolitan region in the world), recorded about 7540 cases of dengue fever. Given this situation, the work presented a prediction of the geographical distribution of this disease, using dengue fever occurrence records and environmental variables, through the MaxEnt distribution modeling. As the main result, it was observed that about 10% of the territory of Guarulhos presented high suitability for the disease occurrence (> 0.7). Areas with around ~900 inhabitants/ha inserted in regions with a mean surface temperature between 18 ºC and 25 ºC, inadequate household water storage, irregular disposal, and absence of waste recycling services may increase the risk of dengue transmission in prolonged drought periods. Finally, the work contributes to the development of public health strategies indicating areas for mitigation and environmental education actions in Guarulhos.