Estimating the Steric Sea Level Rise in Indonesian Seas using an Oceanic General Circulation Model

Abstract

The steric sea level rise rate in the Indonesian Seas was estimated using the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM). The HYCOM-estimated global steric sea level rise agrees well with the previous research results. The model result shows the thermosteric sea level rise is roughly 30% of the total sea level rise observed using altimeter. The steric sea level rise is approximately 20mm from 1993 when the total sea level rise reaches 58mm. The HYCOM results show high correlation coefficients (CC) with altimeter over the Indonesian Seas, with an average of more than 0.8. On the other hand, the contribution of ice melting (CIM) was also estimated using the HYCOM. The HYCOM modeled-CIM is investigated by subtracting the steric sea level rise from the total sea level rise observed using altimeter. The modeled contribution of ice melting (CIM) is ranging from 0.2 to 1.2cm/yr. Moreover, the projection of CIM shows that CIM is 16±2cm, 27±3cm, 41±4cm and 51±5cm in 2030, 2050, 2080 and 2100, respectively. Finally, if the temperature raises to more than 2°C, the thermosteric sea level rise will be 40cm to 80cm, in 2100. Thus, the total sea level rise will be more than 1m, and can reach to approximately 2m in 2100.