The Hungarian simulation model of wine sector and wine market

K. Szenteleki, E. Botos, A. Szabo, M. Ladanyi

Abstract


A simulation model that gives the structure of the production levels and elements, cost and sales income parameters is of great need because it makes possible to analyze or compare individual product lines or group of product lines. For this goal we developed a global (Hungarian) base model specialized for wine production named WIN-SIM. The four levels of the model (site, vine growing, wine production and wine market levels) have individual value added from the aspect of end product, where the product line sets out from the site level and gets through the levels up to the consumer segments. Theoretically, all elements can be connected to the each element of the next level and sublevel, but it is not the case because of professional, regulation or production practice reasons ("prohibited contact"). The base model involves ten sublevels, where the economic weight of the production and the market share of the elements on every level can be considered. Moreover, it is necessary to provide the transition probabilities (%) for all elements to the level above. The WIN-SIM simulation program is able to process some 70.000 result records with a multi-faceted analysis. The model is suitable to analyze the market share, the cost and income relation as well as the relation structure of the product lines. His versatility permits the case-simulation of any country or a wine region after the modification of the input data.

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